718
FXUS65 KTWC 062153
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOLER WEATHER
SYSTEM THURSDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGES
WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS WHITE MOUNTAINS, GALIURO, PINALENO, CATALINA, AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS. TOTAL STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000
AND 8000 FEET 2 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
3. VERY COLD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
TUCSON EAST.
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, BRINGING IN RAIN SHOWERS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN TWO PARTS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND TAPPING INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. PART ONE WILL START BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE HIGH CHANCES FOR
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AT 8000 FEET AND DROPPING TO 7000 FEET BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE, THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM CATALINAS UP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. PART ONE WILL
HAVE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. RAIN FALL
TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WITH SOME
HEAVIER POCKETS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INTERMISSION BEFORE THE SECOND PART STARTS
UP ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SECONDARY SHOT OF ENERGY THAT WILL COME
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN
TO 5000 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS AND BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW
IN EASTERN VALLEY FLOORS IN THE LATE NIGHT. BEHIND IT WILL BRING
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY. TUCSON HAS 45% CHANCE OF FREEZING ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE HEADLINES
FOR THOSE AREAS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/00Z.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 07/00Z THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL BKN-OVC 20K FT AGL. BY 07/15Z, SCT-
BKN 8-10K FT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 5K FT AGL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA DEVELOPING AFTER
07/18Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW EMBEDDED -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS LESS THAN WLY 10-12 KTS THROUGH 08/03Z
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN IN THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 07/18Z,
SFC WINDS SLY/SWLY AT 10-12KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TOMORROW, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING LIGHT-TO- MODERATE
INTENSITY PRECIPITATION, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER COOLER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY, RESULTING IN SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CATALINAS, WHITE
MOUNTAINS, AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL WILL THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RHS
BETWEEN 25-35 PCT IN THE VALLEYS AND 35-45 PCT IN THE MOUNATINS
TODAY, INCREASING TO 50-60 PCT VALLEYS AND 70-80 PCT MOUNATINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR AZZ510-511-514.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page