487
FXUS65 KTWC 082100
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY RESULTING IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN UNSEASONABLY
COOL TO COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH FREEZING MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGES
THE SECOND WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES:
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, GALIURO, PINALENO, CATALINA,
AND RINCON MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.
2. MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN THE TWO
WINTER STORM SYSTEMS, THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF
BETWEEN 6500-7000 FEET THIS MORNING, LOWERING TO 6000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING TO 4500-5000 FEET THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS COLDER AND WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE
6000 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS.
3. VALLEY RAINFALL:
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST (MODERATE-INTENSITY)
RAINFALL WILL ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.40 INCHES. GIVEN
THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, THIS RAINFALL
RUNOFF MAY STILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN
NORMALLY DRY WASHES, ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.
4. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS:
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH.
5. FREEZING TEMPERATURES:
VERY COLD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EAST. POTENTIAL FOR
ICY ROADS THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS ENJOYED A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY BROUGHT A WET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW ON THE SKY ISLANDS. THIS BREAK WILL BE COMING TO THE
END VERY SOON. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARIZONA
AND IT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES IN
PINAL COUNTY.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND IMPACTING TUCSON
AS EARLY AS 3PM WITH SAFFORD EXPERIENCING IMPACTS WITHIN AN HOUR
OF THIS WRITING, AND BENSON BY 5 PM. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BEING
ROBUST BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35
MPH WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE STRONGER GUSTS, SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE, AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL. GENERALLY, RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE 0.1-0.4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE THUNDERSTORMS.
PLUS, MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADD 4-8 INCHES
OF SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN
EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND LOSING SOME KEY
INGREDIENTS TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINING AREAS AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT-TO- MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 4500-5000 FEET IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO SLIGHTLY MIXED
REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS IN GRAHAM, GREENLEE, AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURING BUT A NON-
ZERO CHANCE.
THE NEXT BIG PICTURE AFTER THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE COLD TO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO UNSEASONABLE WITH
CHANCES OF HITTING 32 DEGREES BEING 60% IN TUCSON, 55% IN NOGALES,
35% IN ELOY, AND 60%+ IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
PROBABILITIES EXPAND AND INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR
SETTLES MORE IN THE REGION. EASTERN COUNTIES CAN EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. THERE MAY BE AREAS
NOT DECOUPLING FULLY, AND LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THAT WOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED ABOVE FREEZING. YET, MODELS SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THESE COLD-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THIS YEAR.
THEREFORE, FREEZE WARNING AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LATE THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND WARM UP.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM BY SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE ON SUNDAY.
STAY TUNE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES!
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 10/00Z.
SCT-BKN 4-8K FT AGL BKN-OVC 8-10K FT AGL WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VALLEY -SHRA AND MOUNTAIN -SHSN THROUGH 08/20Z,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08/20Z AND
09/06Z. CIGS 2-5K FT AGL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. A FEW EMBEDDED -TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT
BECOMING FEW-SCT 6-12K FT AGL. SFC WINDS SLY/SWLY 18-22 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS NWLY AT
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS UNTIL 09/06Z. THEN SFC WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY 09/18Z, SFC WINDS
NWLY AT 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BREEZY 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THAN THE FIRST SYSTEM. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
CATALINA AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE VALLEYS FROM TUCSON EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. MINIMUM
RHS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 50-60 PCT IN THE VALLEYS AND 75-90 PCT
IN THE MOUNATINS, LOWERING TO 25-35 PCT IN THE VALLEYS AND 35-45
PCT IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND TO THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
AZZ502>509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ510-
511-514.
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