034
FXUS65 KTWC 091017
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
317 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. COLDER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WARMER TOMORROW WITH GRADUAL
WARMER TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LATEST WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH SE AZ WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ
AND COCHISE COUNTIES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. WATER
VAPOR SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER NRN NM WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS
NE AZ AND E-CNTRL AZ WHERE A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES SLOW TO
COOL DOWN WITH AREAS UNDER THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING LIKELY
NOT GETTING TO FREEZING TEMP, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCAL
SEEING FREEZING TEMPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. TONIGHT IS A DIFFERENT
STORY. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED VALLEYS LIKE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TODAY, A COOL DAY IS IN STORE WITH SOME FLAT CUMULUS FIELDS
AROUND. HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND COLDER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES VERSUS THIS MORNING WITH COLDEST LOWS IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS WHERE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ARE LIKELY. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS WEEKEND: AFTER A COLD SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE. EASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL WREAK HAVOC WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT OVERALL
THEY WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY MORNING VERSUS SATURDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK: DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 10/12Z.
BKN 5K-9K FT AGL SE OF KTUS BCMG SCT BY 09/16Z. THEREAFTER
AREAWIDE FEW TO OCNLY SCT 5K-9K FT THRU 10/03Z THEN SKC THRU END
OF VALID PD. SFC WINDS WLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 10/05Z THEN BCMG
ELY BY END OF VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KSAD WHERE NW WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 09/20Z AND 10/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND A COOL DAY AREAWIDE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM. COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WARMER TOMORROW WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TREND ALL NEXT WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS WELL THIS
WEEKEND TO THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ502>509.
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