835
FXUS65 KTWC 092111
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
211 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL DAY IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. COLDER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WARMER TOMORROW WITH GRADUAL
WARMER TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS SNOW CAPPED MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 40S WHICH IS
14-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLEAR OUT LEADING TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
WINTER. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE TUCSON METRO COULD SEE LOWS 28-34 DEGREES
WITH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON SUCH AS THE SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY
DROPPING BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
OVER THE WEEKEND AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER BAJA
LEADING TO STRONG MID-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT RARE SETUP THAT THE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN.
TYPICALLY THE EASTERLY WINDS ARE ONLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DON'T EXTEND INTO THE UPPER LEVELS. WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN PEAKS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE. THE
ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
EXPOSED TO THE EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF
OF CONUS. THIS ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL MONDAY
THEN INCREASE TO 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 11/00Z.
FEW TO OCNLY SCT 5K-9K FT THRU 10/03Z THEN SKC THRU END OF VALID
PD. SFC WINDS WLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 10/05Z THEN BCMG ELY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT
KSAD WHERE NW WINDS OF 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THRU 10/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BE COOL AREAWIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
YESTERDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM. COLD TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. WARMER TOMORROW WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TREND ALL
NEXT WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND TO THE NEW WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ502>509.
HARDIN
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