244
FXUS65 KTWC 102010
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
110 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PEAKING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS VALLEYS. LOCALIZED GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH IS EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL A
BIT COLDER.
THE MAIN STORY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE A TYPICAL EAST WIND SET UP FOR US IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RESULTING IN A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, THIS CIRCUMSTANCE IS A LITTLE BIT
DIFFERENT AS WE HAVE THE STRONG GRADIENT EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 700
MB AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 700 MB AND 850 MB IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN SOME SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY LOCAL
TERRAIN. WE WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SKY
ISLANDS STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MORE THIS EVENING, AND THEN ADDED IN THE VALLEYS (EXCEPT
CENTRAL/WESTERN PIMA COUNTY) STARTING AT 5 AM SUNDAY WITH THE
ADVISORY EXPIRING 2 PM SUNDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF THE
VALLEY WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIXING COMMENCES AT ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM
SUNDAY BUT A FEW MORE SUCCESPTIBLE SPOTS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS GUSTS
EARLIER. THE EMPHASIS OVERALL IS ON THE MOST PRONE RIDGE TOPS,
MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS AND LOCALES NEAR AND DOWN WIND FROM SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN RANGES. IN THESE SPOTS, GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
BE 40 TO 50 MPH. BLOWING SNOW ON MT. LEMMON AND OTHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE
QUITE AS CHILLY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY, WARMING ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES
COMPARED TO TODAY.
EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 MPH TO 30 MPH RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MIDWEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 12/00Z.
SKC. SFC WINDS ELY 12-27 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS PSBL IN THE MTNS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFT 11/21Z THRU
END OF VALID PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNATINS, ESPECIALLY IN RIDGE TOP AND MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ503>509.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ511>515.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page