055
FNUS75 KTWC 211733
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR ODONNELL RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1033 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON JANUARY 22.
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THURSDAY MORNING, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 42 DEGREES. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 40
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 1300 TO 1700 MST.
THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE GREATER THAN 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE 8 TO 13 MPH GUSTING UP TO 27 MPH. THERE
IS A 38 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BE GREATER THAN 30 MPH. RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATE TO GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN TOTALS FOR FRIDAY ARE BETWEEN 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES. SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT BURN SITE ELEVATION. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE MIN
RH FROM 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY TO 45 PERCENT BY FRIDAY.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45 DEGREES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF MIN TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 40 DEG: 40%
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 15 MPH: 88%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 MPH: 35%
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (26000 KNOT-FT)
LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (MST) 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........78 76 78
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 20 20
TEMP............52 63 65
RH..............33 20 19
20 FT WIND......S 4G7 SW 6G13 SW 8G16
MIX HGT (FT)....900 3400 3800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 SW 12 SW 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 40 47
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD GOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE
IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN
THE MORNING FRIDAY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-69 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 15 MPH: 45%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 MPH: 10%
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL (8500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (4400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........82 75 69 72
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............20 20 30 30
TEMP............59 51 49 47
RH..............28 44 50 58
20 FT WIND......SW 7G12 SW 6G10 S 6G10 S 6G10
MIX HGT (FT)....800 500 500 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 11 SW 9 S 11 S 11
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 4 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....MRGL POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF MIN TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 40 DEG: 25%
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 27 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 15 MPH: 97%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 MPH: 88%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH: 38%
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO MARGINAL (19000 KNOT-FT), THEN
DECREASING TO FAIR (24500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........75 76 86 86
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............60 60 80 80
TEMP............46 50 58 58
RH..............64 64 52 48
20 FT WIND......S 6G10 S 9G14 S 13G20 SW 12G27
MIX HGT (FT)....500 900 2700 3500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 12 SW 17 SW 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 11 46 56
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL GOOD GOOD
FORECASTER...MALARKEY
REQUESTED BY...WES GUTWEILER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600079.3/TWC
.DELDT 01/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL WESLEY.GUTWEILER@USDA.GOV
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