592
FXUS65 KTWC 272139
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
239 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
IT IS SAID THAT, "NATURE DOES NOT HURRY, YET EVERYTHING
IS ACCOMPLISHED". THIS PHILOSOPHICAL OFFERING SUGGESTS THAT BY
EMBRACING A SLOWER, CALM AND STABLE PATH, LIFE CAN BE MORE PRODUCTIVE,
EFFECTIVE AND REWARDING. THIS SEEMS APROPOS TO OUR CURRENT WEATHER
SITUATION. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL PROVIDE A STABLE, DRY AND WARM PATHWAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INTO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY, THE
MEAN RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND ALONG THE WEST COAST, AMPLIFYING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMUP OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, TOPPING OFF AROUND 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE
HIGH SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NUDGING A BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH SATURDAY. THE 27/18Z NBM
PROBABILITY FOR THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KTUS) HAVING
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 17 KTS ON SATURDAY IS 34%,
AND 7% FOR MAX WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS. I WOULD ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE CALM PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL AND REWARDING
CHAMBER-OF-COMMERCE TYPE OF WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/00Z. SKC-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL THROUGH 28/04Z THEN SCT 12-15K FT AGL BKN-OVC 18-20K FT AGL
THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS MAINLY ELY/SELY AT
12 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN THRU THE END OF THIS WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN MAKE A
RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RH LEVELS IN THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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