539
FXUS65 KTWC 282046
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
146 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
BROAD RIDING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO PROVIDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN, THEN GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TRANSITION WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BECOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, EASTERLY BREEZES ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS RIDGE PROGRESSION ON SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO EAST WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT TENDING TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA AND THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS A NEAR TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
SCT-BKN CEILINGS AT 15K-20K FT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN, MAINLY
UNDER 12 MPH. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH LIKELY SATURDAY, MAINLY IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO
EAST WIND. MINIMUM RH LEVELS IN THE VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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