689
FXUS65 KTWC 300747
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH EASTERLY BREEZES ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN IT
WILL BE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. AT THE
SAME TIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN LOCALES EXPOSED TO EASTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN. THE GFS ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SEEP INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAVOR ZONAL
FLOW AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWERING 1-3 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 31/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND LESS
THAN 12 KTS THRU THE FORECAST CYCLE, VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THRU
30/19Z, FAVORING A NLY/NELY DIRECTION BETWEEN 30/19Z AND 31/01Z AND
THEN AN ELY/SELY DIRECTION AFT 31/01Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. MINIMUM RH LEVELS AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 13-25 PERCENT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE MONDAY/TUESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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