127
FXUS65 KTWC 302231
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
331 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH EASTERLY BREEZES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON.
-ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL NUDGE TO THE
EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON
JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE (5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, LITTLE TO NO HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SECONDARILY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OWING TO
OCCASIONAL BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER STRONGER EAST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS SUCH AS THE
GILA RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS. AS OF NOW, ONLY MINOR NUISANCE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY LESS
THAN 25 MPH AND GUSTS LESS THAN 35 MPH. DURING THIS PERIOD, A REX
BLOCK APPEARS TO SET UP WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING JUST TO THE WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IF THE BLOCK REMAINS IN
TACT, WE COULD SEE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WIND LESS THAN 12 KTS
FAVORING ELY TO SELY DIRECTION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN
LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. MINIMUM RH LEVELS AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 13-25 PERCENT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE MONDAY/TUESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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