664
FXUS65 KTWC 310820
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
120 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, AS HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THOSE LOCALES EXPOSED TO EASTERLY WINDS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE
UPPER HIGH THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS SAME TIME,
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO
WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER EASTERLY WIND EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. IT'S A LONG WAYS OUT AND THINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUTS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WIND EVENTS, SUCH AS
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE VALID PERIOD.
SFC WIND NELY THRU SELY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 8-14 KTS AND
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. 20-FOOT WIND WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER EASTERLY WIND EVENT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 13-25 PERCENT
RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10
PERCENT INCREASE MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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