308
FXUS65 KTWC 312110
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY ACROSS SE AZ UNDER ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ON THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE VALLEYS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S WHILE THEY WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY BREEZES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH,
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
FEBRUARY STARTS OFF ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RUNNING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
DAYS 4-7 (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY):
DRY FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE ENSEMBLE
WORLD FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO SE AZ THU/FRI OUT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. ANY PRECIP, IF IT
OCCURS, WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND MOSTLY SE OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE, MOSTLY RUNNING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST DAY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AM.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (FEB 8-14):
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-50%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-50%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/00Z.
SKC. CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 20K FT INCRG FM WSW AFT 01/17Z. SFC
WIND NELY THRU SELY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 8-14 KTS AND SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH IN LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. 20-FOOT WIND WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER EASTERLY WIND EVENT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 13-25 PERCENT
RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10
PERCENT INCREASE MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.
CLIMATE
CPC RELEASED THE ZERO-LEAD TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR
FEBRUARY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-50%)
PRECIPITATION: EQUAL CHANCES
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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