407
FXUS65 KTWC 192110
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNATINS SNOW. EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY FRIDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A LARGE SCALE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE TAHOE, AND ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE OPEN ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH,
THE ENTIRE TROUGH WILL TRACK FAIRLY EASILY EAST FRIDAY.
STRONG FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS (UP TO 60 KTS AT 700 MB) ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 20/09Z FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH 20/18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER MOUNTAIN-WAVE WINDS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 19/12Z
NBM DETERMINISTIC WINDS SEEM TO CORRECTLY SUGGEST A BREEZY
SURFACE FRONT TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ISN'T PICKING UP ON THE HIGHER WINDS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE TERRAIN LIKE THE 19/12Z HI-RES CAMS LIKE THE FV3,
ARW AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR.
THE NBM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE LAX ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING A STRONGER FEATURE. NBM
ONLY SUGGESTS UP TO A TRACE OF PCPN ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PCPN AMOUNTS A TAD
HIGHER THAN FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA
(KTUS) GIVEN THAT THE NBM PROBABILITY OF GTE 0.05 INCHES IS 18
PERCENT. IN ANY EVENT, I WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN
BELOW A TENTH INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST TOMORROW, I WOULD EXPECT A
BROAD RIDGE TO TAKE-HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A REINFORCEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS? EXPECT
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY,
THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/00Z. SCT-BKN 5K-8K FT AGL THROUGH
20/10Z, THEN INCREASING CLOUDS TO BKN-OVC 3-6K FT AGL WITH
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. SFC WINDS SWLY/WLY 12-16 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH 10/10Z, INCREASING TO
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES FROM TUCSON NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
THIS WEEKEND AND WARMER WITH LESS WIND. MIN RHS 20-35 PERCENT IN
THE VALLEYS AND 35-55 IN THE MOUNATINS FRIDAY, DRYING TO 10-20
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS TO 20-30 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page