923
FXUS65 KTWC 200947
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AND COOL TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING, WHILE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THE BRUNT
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AVOIDING COCHISE COUNTY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE KEPT NORTH AND WEST. THE SUITE OF 00Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO PRODUCE
WITH THIS FRONT, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM NEAR NOTHING FROM THE
HRRR TO LIGHT RAIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE NSSL-
WRF, NAMNEST, AND ARW. WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY BEING LIGHT
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT MOUNTAIN TOPS SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, POTENTIALLY CAUSING SLICK ROADS INTO
SUMMERHAVEN ON MOUNT LEMMON. THE FRONT DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO
THE TUCSON METRO AREA, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. FROM GUIDANCE THAT DOES INCLUDE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS THE MORE
LIKELY RANGE. HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT THE SCENARIO WHERE MOISTURE
DOESN'T FULLY MAKE IT INTO THE CATALINAS. FURTHER NORTH
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FAR MORE LIKELY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
2-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE A
DRASTIC RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH RIDGING TAKING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING FORECAST HIGHS TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
INCREASING CLOUDS OF BKN-OVC 3-6K FT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF KTUS THIS MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER
20/18Z. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH KTUS-KOLS AND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS IN EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KSAD-KDUG. WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER 21/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY WEST WINDS 15-20 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, WITH THE
WINDIER CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES BORDERING NEW MEXICO. A
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS
MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 10-20 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 20-30
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS TREND WHILE HIGHS CLIMB TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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