192
FXUS65 KTWC 202126
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
226 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 13 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA CONTINUES TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LIGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HAVING SINCE TAPERED OF
AROUND MID-DAY EARLIER TODAY. AS THE MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
RIDGING DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN GENERAL, WE WILL WARM UP TO AROUND
NORMAL SATURDAY, 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS
13 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE TUCSON
METRO AREA NEXT WEEK, KTUS HAS A 19 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SETTING
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY 2/26 (FCST: 86F RECORD:
88F) AND 49 PERCENT PROBABILITY FRIDAY 2/27 (FCST: 87F RECORD:
88F).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z. SCT-BKN 4-6K FT AGL TO THE NE OF
TUCSON THROUGH 21/00Z, THEN SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WLY 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KSAD-KDUG THROUGH 21/02Z, THEN LESS THAN 10
KTS FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS BECOME
ELY/SELY 10-12 KTS AFTER 21/18Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY WEST WINDS 15-20 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH, WITH THE WINDIER CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BORDERING NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME 13 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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