538
FXUS65 KTWC 211926
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1226 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 13
TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO, NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS COMING WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
13-18 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, SETTING UP A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
EASTERLY WINDS IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-
20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH A LITTLE
LOWER WIND SPEEDS MONDAY MORNING.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON ON
WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES,
MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/00Z.
FEW CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AFT
22/01Z AND CONTINUING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC
WIND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 22/11Z, THEN INCREASING SFC WIND
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22-28 KTS AFT 22/16Z. SFC
WIND DIRECTION NELY TO SELY THRU THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 13-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST WINDS. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 12-22 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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