706
FXUS65 KTWC 220913
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
213 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 13 TO 18
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY,
SITTING DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY,
THEN YET ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES ON MONDAY. BY MID-WEEK HIGHS WILL BE
13-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS WARM PATTERN LASTING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THANKS TO A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY AND
INCREASE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. AREAS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY FLOW
(ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GILA) WILL SEE 15-20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH. EASTERLY WIND CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BUT AT A LOWER MAGNITUDE. A BREEZY PERIOD WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT WITH FEW-SCT 15K FT CEILINGS, WITH
DIMINISHING COVERAGE AFTER 23/00Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO
22-28 KTS. WINDS BECAME 7-12 KTS SOUTHEAST-NORTHEAST AFTER
23/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 13-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MONDAY AND WIND SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST
WINDS. 20- FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY. BREEZY
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 12-22 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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