045
FXUS65 KTWC 222135
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
TO 13 TO 19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE WINDS ARE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY, THANKS TO AN EAST-
WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WINDS STAY EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION CENTERED OVER BAJA AND THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. UPSTREAM A
PACIFIC LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN.
THANKS TO THE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND
BECOMING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THE RIDGE BUILDS
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND TUCSON
WILL SEE A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE TO HIT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/00Z.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20K FT MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH 23/02Z, THEN SKC THEREAFTER. SURFACE WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST
TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22-30 KTS. WINDS
BECAME 7-12 KTS SOUTHEAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 23/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 13-19 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK POTENTIALLY REACHING RECORD
LEVELS. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
12-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH IN LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO EAST
WINDS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY. BREEZY
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT ALL ELEVATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 12-22 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5-10 PERCENT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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