436
FXUS65 KTWC 230948
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
248 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 13 TO
19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SIT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
A RIDGE HAS BUILT ALOFT OVER THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. NAEFS
GUIDANCE INDICATES 500MB AND 200MB HEIGHTS EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGHLIGHTING THE
IMPRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS TRANSITION FROM
7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO 13-19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THE
TUCSON AIRPORT WILL BE IN DANGER OF FALLING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE OTHER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY, DAILY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
EASTERN LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER GILA, WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDS ON THE HIGHER END OR EXCEEDING THIS RANGE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 7-12 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 24/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRANSITION FROM 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO
13-19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS TURN WEST
TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN THAT DIRECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEK. INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 15-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
OTHERWISE MAINLY 10-20 PERCENT THIS WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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