015
FXUS65 KTWC 232124
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE
HIGH OF THE YEAR FRIDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CAN BE DEFINED BY A SINGLE
WORD...WARM. THE UPPER PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEFINED BY A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA, AND A BAGGY TROUGH RESIDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN OPENS
UP LATE THIS WEEKEND...SQUISHING THE RIDGE BUT REMAINING A BROAD
RIDGE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NBM 23/20Z PROBABILITY FOR THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(KTUS) TO HIT 90 DEGREES THIS WEEK ARE: 12% FRIDAY, 40% SATURDAY,
45% SUNDAY, THE BACK DOWN TO 27% MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BROADENS. THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR KTUS THIS WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, WITH THE LOWEST VALUE 85 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS, THE
NBM PROBABILITY OF SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH IS 25 PERCENT FRIDAY,
THEN 90 PERCENT SATURDAY AND 70 PERCENT SUNDAY.
AS STATED IN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, "DAILY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. EASTERN LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
UPPER GILA, WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS ON THE HIGHER END OR EXCEEDING
THIS RANGE." THIS WILL BRING ABOUT CONDITIONS NEARING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF, LOCALIZED CRITICAL WIND/RH OBSERVATION WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 25/00Z. SKC-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS SELY 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 24/02Z THIS
EVENING. SFC WINDS BECOMING WLY/NWLY 10-12 KTS AFTER 24/20Z
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRANSITION FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20-FOOT WINDS OF
10-15 MPH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS
TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN THAT DIRECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEK. INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES 10-20 PERCENT TUESDAY, BECOMING 15-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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