719
FXUS65 KTWC 240942
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE
HIGH OF THE YEAR FRIDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE DELIVERING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY. NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THOUGH MINOR INCREASES IN HIGH TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES HAVE OCCURRED AS ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.
DAILY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ALL-TIME FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD
FOR TUCSON (92 F SET FEBRUARY 14, 1957) IN DANGER OF FALLING.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR THE TUCSON AIRPORT TO SEE THE FIRST
90 DEGREE HIGH THIS YEAR ARE 13% FRIDAY, 50% SATURDAY, AND 48%
SUNDAY. OTHER AREAS OF THE TUCSON METRO HAVE EVEN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SIT OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK, PUTTING SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH INCREASED
WINDS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE ALOFT CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EASTERN LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
UPPER GILA, WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS ON THE HIGHER END OR EXCEEDING
THIS RANGE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 25/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST 10-14 KTS AFTER
24/20Z, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 25/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRANSITION FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS TODAY
THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH AT A LIGHTER MAGNITUDE THAN
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10-20 PERCENT
TUESDAY, BECOMING 15-25 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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