660
FXUS65 KTWC 241949
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1248 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TUCSON COULD SEE ITS
FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR FRIDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND
AND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
(15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 90 DEGREES IN TUCSON ARE
38 PERCENT SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
EVEN A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF TYING THE ALL-TIME FEBRUARY HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY OF 92 F IN TUCSON SET BACK ON FEBRUARY 14,
1957. ONE LIMITING FACTOR OVER THE WEEKEND FOR REACHING THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE AMOUNT (AND THICKNESS) OF CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE TUCSON METRO, AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF GREENLEE, GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES,
WITH THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A
CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS
THIS FEATURE, WITH SUBTLE VARIANCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 'COOL' TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY ALSO BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT
IT'S TO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO LOCK INTO WHERE THOSE CHANCES ARE.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIME
FRAME HAS TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AT 80-90% ABOVE NORMAL AND
PRECIPITATION AT 33-50% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND
WLY/NWLY AT 8-14 KTS THRU 25/02Z, BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BETWEEN 25/02Z AND 25/17Z. AFT 25/17Z, NWLY
SFC WIND AT 12-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD AND KALK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRANSITION FROM 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20-FOOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-
15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, THEN
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF 15-
20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. 20-FOOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL
ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THEY WILL BE IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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