823
FXUS65 KTWC 251001
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
301 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN TUCSON IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE WEST COAST. ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS AN
UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SOLID CHANCE OF TUCSON REACHING ITS
FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF THE YEAR. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES AT THE
TUCSON AIRPORT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
OTHER PARTS OF THE TUCSON METRO REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 F IS
MUCH HIGHER. DAILY RECORDS WILL BE IN DANGER OF FALLING THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS THE ALL TIME FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD (92 F SET FEBRUARY 14, 1957) FOR TUCSON OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE OTHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH PORTIONS OF GREENLEE, GRAHAM, AND COCHISE
COUNTIES, WITH THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY ON THE HIGHER END OF
THIS RANGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AT LEAST A
MODEST CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH THIS TROUGH HOWEVER,
INDICATIVE THAT "COOLER" BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAVORED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL, BUT AGAIN THE ADVERTISED SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOESN'T QUITE FAVOR NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES. PLENTY OF TIME FOR
DETAILS TO SHIFT HOWEVER.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 26/12Z.
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY 12-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AFTER 25/12Z. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY IN
THE VICINITY OF KSAD-KALK. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 26/02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRANSITION FROM AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 20-FOOT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF OF 15- 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. 20-FOOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
15-30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND THURSDAY, BECOMING 10-20 PERCENT IN
THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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