921
FXUS65 KTWC 252101
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS
WE CLOSE OUT A VERY WARM FEBRUARY IS THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES LEADING TO DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH DETAILS. FOR
TUCSON, MODEL LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VALUES THAT WERE RECORDED IN 2009 & 2016,
THE LAST TIME TUCSON HIT 90+ IN FEBRUARY. ON THE WIND SIDE,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES WILL BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYS 4-7 (SUN MAR 1 TO WED MAR 4)
MARCH STARTS OFF RATHER WARM WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE SUNDAY, THEN TURNING COOLER AND BREEZY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ENSEMBLES MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE
STATE. ALTHOUGH COOLER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE, THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM BASELINE
FORECAST. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, THAT MAY BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (SEE BELOW).
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (MAR 5-11)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-50%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-50%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/00Z.
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THRU THE 26/08Z THEN FEW-SCT THRU END
OF VALID PD. W-NW SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS THRU
26/03Z THEN BCMG LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THRU 26/17Z. W-NW SFC
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFT 26/17Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 15-22
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THEN COOL TO BE 6 TO 11
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN 20-FOOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND THURSDAY, BECOMING
10-20 PERCENT IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHED, TIED OR EXCEEDED EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
LOCATION ALL-TIME FEB FORECAST
RECORD HIGH FRI SAT
TUCSON 92: 2/14/1957 90 91
ORGAN PIPE 95: 2/13/1957 95 97
AJO 92: 2/25/2025* 93 95
PICACHO PEAK 89: 2/17/2016* 87 90
ORACLE 82: 2/10/2017 80 82
SAFFORD (TOWN) 87: 2/15/1957 87 89
WILLCOX 88: 2/17/2016* 85 87
SIERRA VISTA 86: 2/18/2014 84 86
NOGALES (TOWN) 89: 2/ 9/2017 88 90
DOUGLAS 86: 2/10/2017* 86 87
* LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
THE OFFICIAL TUCSON LOCATIONS SINCE 1894 HAVE RECORDED A
FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S FIVE TIMES,
IN 1904 (91), 1921 (91), 1957 (92), 2009 (91) & 2016 (90).
WITH THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END FEBRUARY, TUCSON IS
GUARANTEED TO RECORD ITS WARMEST FEBRUARY AND WINTER ON RECORD.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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