622
FXUS65 KTWC 260919
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALL-TIME
FEBRUARY RECORDS WILL BE APPROACHED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A STOUT RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, WHILE A CLOSED EASTERN PACIFIC
LOW SITS UPSTREAM FURTHER WEST. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE MAX TO MAXING OUT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATABASE
IN NAEFS GUIDANCE WITH THIS RIDGE, WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO DAILY RECORDS, ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ARE IN DANGER OF FALLING AS WELL. SEE
BELOW FOR RECORD HIGH DETAILS.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FROM THE RECORD LEVELS SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE BRUNT OF
THIS TROUGH REMAINING TO THE NORTH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA ARE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.
AVIATION
MAINLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH 26/17Z, THEN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY 8-13 KTS THROUGH 27/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 15-22
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THEN COOL TO BE 6 TO 11
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 20-FOOT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 15-30 PERCENT TODAY AND FRIDAY, BECOMING 10-20
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
APPROACHED, TIED OR EXCEEDED EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
LOCATION ALL-TIME FEB FORECAST
RECORD HIGH FRI SAT
TUCSON 92: 2/14/1957 90 92
ORGAN PIPE 95: 2/13/1957 96 97
AJO 92: 2/25/2025* 93 96
PICACHO PEAK 89: 2/17/2016* 88 91
ORACLE 82: 2/10/2017 80 82
SAFFORD (TOWN) 87: 2/15/1957 88 90
WILLCOX 88: 2/17/2016* 86 87
SIERRA VISTA 86: 2/18/2014 85 86
NOGALES (TOWN) 89: 2/ 9/2017 89 90
DOUGLAS 86: 2/10/2017* 87 89
* LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
THE OFFICIAL TUCSON LOCATIONS SINCE 1894 HAVE RECORDED A
FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S FIVE TIMES,
IN 1904 (91), 1921 (91), 1957 (92), 2009 (91) & 2016 (90).
WITH THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END FEBRUARY, TUCSON IS
GUARANTEED TO RECORD ITS WARMEST FEBRUARY AND WINTER ON RECORD.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
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