136
FXUS65 KTWC 122010
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
110 PM MST THU MAR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LEVELING OUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT
(15 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS EXPECTED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS RIDGING IS
BUILDING IN ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE TOPPING OUT ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGING WILL PEAK FRIDAY BEFORE
HEIGHTS GETS KNOCKED SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN BREEZES
ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD. EVEN
THOUGH HEIGHTS DROP SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND, THERE WON'T REALLY BE A
RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MINOR HEATRISK FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES NEXT WEEK. IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS, THERE IS PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE TIMING OF
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WHICH NOW LOOK LIKE WILL OCCUR FROM ABOUT
NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH HEIGHTS AT RECORD LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR TEMPERATURES RISING TO
20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAILY AND MARCH MONTHLY TEMPERATURES RECORDS.
HEATRISK WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WHILE THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE, WE HAVE MANY
VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS AND OUTDOOR EVENTS IN OUR REGION THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHICH TYPICALLY AREN'T EXPOSED TO ARE ACCLIMATED TO
SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES. THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE HEAT IS NOW WITH
HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS KEPT TOP OF MIND AS WE HEAD INTO THIS HEAT
WAVE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 14/00Z. SKC THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD. SFC WINDS ELY AT 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 13/03Z THRU 14/20Z WITH WLY/NWLY WINDS
RESUMING THEREAFTER THRU THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
LEVELING OUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (15 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS POSSIBLE
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. EASTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND
10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN
15 MPH WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS
WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. MINIMUM RHS 9-20 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MIN
RHS TO 8-15 PERCENT AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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