270
FXUS65 KTWC 132002
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
103 PM MST FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS RIDGING ALOFT IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGING WILL FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS
A WEATHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
BREEZES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON FOR BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-
35 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. A FEW LOCALES WILL SEE BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO BE IMPACTFUL. ALTHOUGH THE
RIDGING IS BRIEFLY TAMPED DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH THAT PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEM, IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REMAINING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
BY, EXPECT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY.
THE BIGGER STORY IN OUR WEATHER WILL BE NEXT WEEK AS A HISTORIC,
LONG DURATION MARCH HEAT WAVE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND MONDAY BUT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND CENTER ITSELF IN/NEAR AZ
FROM ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE TIME THE RIDGE
PEAKS AROUND NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM ABOUT 5930M TO 5950M. TO PUT THIS IN CONTEXT,
THESE LEVELS WOULD DESTROY OUR PREVIOUS MARCH RECORDS WHICH PEAK AT
AROUND 5900M. THESE KIND OF 500MB HEIGHTS ARE WHAT WE SEE IN HIGHER
END SCENARIOS IN JUNE AND JULY. GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUS THESE HEIGHTS
ARE, WE'RE ON TRACK TO EASILY BREAK DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH FOR MOST LOCALES. IN
ADDITION, SOME CITIES IN SOUTHEAST AZ WILL SEE THEIR EARLIEST 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURES FROM 3 TO 7 WEEKS AHEAD OF THEIR PREVIOUS
EARLIEST 100 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE NBM HAS A 50%, 83% AND 90%
CHANCE OF HITTING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN TUCSON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. IN COLLABORATION WITH PSR, WE'VE
GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WHILE
HEATRISK WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR ACROSS THE
REGION, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND ALL THE VISITORS, SEASONAL
RESIDENTS AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED
TO EXTREME HEAT ALONG WITH AN INCREASED NUMBER MORE OUTDOOR EVENTS
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT'S PRUDENT TO HOIST THE HEAT HEADLINES. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FROM TUCSON WEST AND 50S SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON WILL HELP OUT, SO WE'RE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE PEAK
HOURS OF HEAT FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING EACH DAY. THE
TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE HEAT IS NOW WITH HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS
KEPT TOP OF MIND AS WE HEAD INTO THIS HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 15/00Z. SKC THROUGH ABOUT 04/02Z, THEN
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 8-14 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THROUGH 14/03Z THIS EVENING, THEN RELAXING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS THEN BECOME WLY/SWLY 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AFT 14/18Z THRU END OF THE VALID
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. WEST
TO NORTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-
35 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES. MINIMUM RHS 8-
18 PERCENT AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN
LOWERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE NEXT WEEK. A FEW LOCALES
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR THE NM BORDER
WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING MARCH 19 THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING MARCH 22 FOR AZZ501>509.
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