424
FXUS65 KTWC 140842
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
142 AM MST SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DEFINED BY A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH
CENTER EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SSE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY, WITH THE DRY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
FEATURE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY ANYTHING MORE THAN
A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL THOUGH RESULT IN SOME
BREEZES TO AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SUSTAINED 20-FOOT
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH AND MINIMUM RHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY BRIEF, NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.
OTHERWISE, A SECONDARY HIGH BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
ALONG 130W SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND MOVES EAST INTO THE L.A. BASIN TUESDAY...THEN OVER
ARIZONA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGH CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE/MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
THEREFORE, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH
THE HOTTEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 15/12Z. SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K
FT AGL THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS THRU 14/20Z, BECOMING WLY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
THRU 15/03Z THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. WINDS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS WEEKEND WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
20-FOOT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM,
GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES. A FEW LOCALES ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR THE NM BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE
BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM RHS 8-18 PERCENT AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN LOWERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE
NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ501>509.
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