709
FXUS65 KTWC 142009
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
109 PM MST SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST WITH A MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SET UP
WILL BRING TWO WEATHER STORIES FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
GRAHAM, GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTY WITH THE UPPER GILA RIVER
AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EXPERIENCING THE STRONGER
SIDE OF THE WINDS. ON TOP OF THE BREEZY WINDS, THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY BRIEF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NEXT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING EACH DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SEE A JUMP IN TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. WITH EACH DAY ADDING A FEW MORE DEGREES
AND PEAKING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
HEAT OF THE YEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25+ ABOVE NORMAL.
HEATRISK WILL BE MODERATE TO MAJOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE,
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 16/00Z.
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THROUGH 15/03Z,
THEN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BECOMING 10-20 KTS AGAIN AFTER 15/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 15/18Z STRONGEST IN KSAD VICINITY WITH 20-30
KT NORTHWEST WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES. A FEW
LOCALES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR THE NM
BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM RHS 8-18 PERCENT
AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN LOWERING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ501>509.
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