741
FXUS65 KTWC 150731
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1231 AM MST SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IS
EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
DISCUSSION
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTLINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ALONG THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE UPPER-RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP NUDGE THICKNESS VALUES DOWN ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN DRY, THE MAIN IMPACT OF IT
WILL BE TO ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY ACROSS GRAHAM,
GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
20-FOOT WINDS 15-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH AND MINIMUM RHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF, NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS. HOWEVER, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH
TO NECESSITATE ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
OTHERWISE, A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER BUILDING ALONG 130W TODAY IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN OVERHEAD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD BRING
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH THE HOTTEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 16/12Z. SKC-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS A)A 20K FT
AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 15/18Z, BECOMING NWLY 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS THROUGH 16/03Z THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS
WILL BE IN KSAD VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-22
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
THE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM, GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES. A FEW
LOCALES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR THE NM
BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AGAIN TODAY BUT THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM RHS 8-18 PERCENT AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN LOWERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ501>509.
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