989
FXUS65 KTWC 152040
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
140 PM MST SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
20 TO POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST AND A DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA SITS BETWEEN
THESE TWO PATTERNS TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY. WITH LOWER ELEVATION RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 10 PERCENT TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF AND VERY LOCALIZED PERIODS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY.
THE STOUT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BECOMING CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT'S DIFFICULT
TO OVERSTATE JUST HOW ANOMALOUS THIS RIDGE WILL BE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWING 200MB AND 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION
THOROUGHLY EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LOOKING AT HISTORICAL
UPPER AIR OBSERVATION DATA, THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OF
THIS RIDGE ARE MORE COMMONLY SEEN WELL INTO THE SUMMER, CERTAINLY
NOT IN MID- MARCH. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO IS THE WELL
ADVERTISED RECORD SMASHING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROM THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BECOME 20-25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HEATRISK REACHING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR LEVELS. TUCSON'S
RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 99 DEGREES (SET MARCH 26,
1988) WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, ALONG WITH THE EARLIEST 100
DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR (CURRENT RECORD APRIL 11, 2025).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/00Z.
SKC-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 20K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KTS THROUGH 16/03Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN KSAD
VICINITY OVERNIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
BETWEEN 16/12Z AND 16/15Z, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN KSAD. BY 16/18Z, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 8 TO 12 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT (20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.
WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH
WINDS UNDER 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS. MINIMUM RHS
8-18 PERCENT AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
LOWERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ501>509.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...STRONGMAN
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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