315
FXUS65 KTWC 161756
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1056 AM MST MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT
TYPICALLY ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE
ESPECIALLY URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF
THE DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY IS CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW
WITH A STOUT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THOSE EASTERN LOCATIONS,
OTHERWISE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO YESTERDAY PERSIST FROM TUCSON-
NOGALES WEST.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST, WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE IS HIGHLIGHTED BY 500MB HEIGHTS MORE
COMMONLY SEEN WELL INTO THE SUMMER, WHICH WILL DELIVER RECORD
SMASHING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHS 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 95 TO AT LEAST 105 DEGREE
HIGHS IN DESERT LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL DELIVER
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY NATURE OF
THIS HEAT. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A NUMBER OF DAILY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN AS WELL AS TUCSON'S RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (99
DEGREES SET MARCH 26, 1988) AND THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF
THE YEAR FOR TUCSON (CURRENT RECORD APRIL 11, 2025).
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS BUT STICKS AROUND THE
REGION, WITH THE CENTER MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS "COOLS"
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ARE STILL LIKELY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN KSAD. FROM TUCSON WEST,
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS THEN LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 17/02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS ON TOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL BECOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 MPH WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
BREEZIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RHS 8-18 PERCENT AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THEN LOWERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ501>509.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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