299
FXUS65 KTWC 170842
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
142 AM MST TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT
TYPICALLY ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE
ESPECIALLY URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF
THE DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST, WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AND OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE IS HIGHLIGHTED BY 500MB HEIGHTS MORE
COMMONLY SEEN WELL INTO THE SUMMER, WHICH WILL DELIVER RECORD
SMASHING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHS 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 95 TO AT LEAST 105 DEGREE
HIGHS IN DESERT LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL DELIVER
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY NATURE OF
THIS HEAT. AS OF 01Z, THERE IS A 22% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 104
DEGREES IN TUCSON FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 20TH. THE EXTREME WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A NUMBER OF DAILY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AS WELL AS TUCSON'S
RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (99 DEGREES SET MARCH 26, 1988)
AND THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR FOR TUCSON (CURRENT
RECORD APRIL 11, 2025). THESE RECORDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
BROKEN BY 6 TO 10 DEGREES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 6 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE OLDEST MARCH HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD, 92 DEGREES SET ON MARCH 23, 1896 (130
YEARS) IS FORECAST TO BE BROKEN WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 94
DEGREES ON THE 23RD.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS BUT STICKS AROUND
THE REGION, WITH THE CENTER MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
"COOLS" TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH HIGHS 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE STILL LIKELY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH 18/05Z BECOMING SKC. SURFACE
WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH 17/18Z. KSAD AND NORTHEAST,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. SOUTH AND WEST OF
KSAD, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFT 18/04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL BECOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 MPH WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
BREEZIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RHS 8-18 PERCENT TODAY BECOMING 5-12 PERCENT AREAWIDE BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ501>509.
MALARKEY/EDWARDS
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