702
FXUS65 KTWC 172036
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
136 PM MST TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY HOT TEMPERATURES THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY
ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED
TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT HAS SEEN THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS
NUDGE EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TREK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE WEEKEND. IT'S DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE THE
ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS UPPER HIGH WITH FORECAST PRESSURE HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO BLOW PAST PREVIOUS RECORDS. AT 500MB A 592+ DAM
HEIGHT AS DEPICTED BY MOST GUIDANCE FRIDAY-SATURDAY WOULD BE
ABNORMAL FOR LATE MAY AND MORE LIKELY IN JULY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO A PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHERE BROKEN RECORDS WILL BE LIKELY,
NOT ONLY FOR A SPECIFIC DAY BUT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (99
DEGREES SET MARCH 26, 1988) AS WELL AS THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY
IN TUCSON (CURRENT RECORD APRIL 11, 2025). IN FACT THE CURRENT
7 DAY FORECAST FOR TUCSON INCLUDES 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS (THURSDAY-
TUESDAY) OF RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ABNORMALLY HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE THE REASON FOR THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING VALID THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE HEAT AT
DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR THOSE UNACCUSTOMED OR NOT YET ACCLIMATED TO
THE HEAT AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN WITH ITS CENTER
SHIFTING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, THIS WILL "COOL" HIGHS DOWN FROM THE
RECORD SETTING LEVELS TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY ARRIVE WITH THIS PATTERN
SHIFT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/00Z.
MAINLY SKC FOR THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K
FT. SFC WINDS NW-LY/W-LY AT 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS THRU
18/03Z AND AGAIN AFTER 18/18Z THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
SFC WINDS ARE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL BECOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 MPH WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
BREEZIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM
RHS 8-18 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING 5-12 PERCENT AREAWIDE
BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ501>509.
PUBLIC...EDWARDS
AVIATION...JT
FIRE WEATHER....EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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