398
FXUS65 KTWC 192023
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
123 PM MST THU MAR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANTLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VISITORS,
SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY ACCUSTOMED TO
OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MAIN FORECAST STORY WILL BE
CENTERED AROUND HEAT. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AT LEAST 5-10
DEGREES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHING 96F. YESTERDAY AROUND THE NOON, IT WAS 86F. THE
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES, SO FAR, THIS YEAR, AND BREAKING DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORDS. TUCSON IS ON TRACK TO REACH ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DURING
THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TAKE EXTRA PRE-CAUTIONS AS WE ARE NOT ACCUSTOM TO THIS
HEAT...IN MARCH.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, TO OUR NORTH, WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE RUNNING AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK. THE FLATTENING OUT OF THE RIDGE WILL INTRODUCE
BREEZES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TOWARDS THE LAST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
OUR EAST AND SLOWLY OPENING UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW, BRINGING IN
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THIS WILL EVOLVE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE
8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK HAS 33-50% LEAN FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD AND MONITOR AFTER THIS
HEAT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z.
MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
GREATER THAN 25K FT AGL. SFC WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOMORROW, STARTING
AROUND 20/18Z, GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. THERE CAN
BE THE OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 20 TO 25
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH. BREEZIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT. MINIMUM RHS 5 TO
15 PERCENT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>509.
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