785
FXUS65 KTWC 200955
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST FRI MAR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH BEING SET.
VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY
ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED
TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE IMPACTS THE AREA. MANY
DAILY AND MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN, THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER
GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
DAYS 4-7 (MAR 23-26)
THE HEAT DOME WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND,
THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN THIS WEEKEND, WILL
STILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE FOR LATE MARCH, 18 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, MAKING DAILY TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THE NBM IS
THE BASELINE FORECAST USED FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WPC MADE LITTLE
TO NO CHANGES TO THE BASELINE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (MARCH 27 TO APRIL 2)
TEMPERATURES: ABOVE NORMAL (78-88%)
PRECIPITATION: ABOVE NORMAL (33-45%)
3-MONTH SEASONAL OUTLOOKS THROUGH WINTER 2027
ACCORDING TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS RELEASED BY CPC YESTERDAY,
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT YEAR. THIS TREND COVERS NINE OVERLAPPING SEASONS, SPANNING
FROM APRIL TO JUNE 2026 (AMJ) THRU JANUARY TO MARCH 2027 (JFM).
THE LEANING ABOVE NORMAL IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMERGING EL NINO
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT THROUGH THE 2026-2027 WINTER
SEASON.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
SKC. SFC WINDS THRU 20/18Z AND AFTER 21/03Z, LESS THAN 12 KTS AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. AT OTHER HOURS NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 18
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 20 TO 25 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. BREEZIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MINIMUM
RHS 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>509.
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