584
FXUS65 KTWC 202036
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
136 PM MST FRI MAR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH BEING SET.
VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY
ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED
TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
VERY ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO CONTINUED RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. 100 DEGREE HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN TUCSON TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SMALLER CHANCES SUNDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY SHUNTING THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE IN RECORD TERRITORY DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RECONSOLIDATES OVER
ARIZONA, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVEN
WITH THE VERY SMALL REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE LIKELY
EACH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE ON THE HORIZON. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES SHOW MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME RAIN
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS,
WHICH SHOW A 33-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 22/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT OTHER TIMES
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 20 TO 25 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. BREEZIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MINIMUM
RHS 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>509.
HARDIN
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