877
FXUS65 KTWC 211003
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST SAT MAR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH BEING SET.
VISITORS, SEASONAL RESIDENTS, AND OTHER PEOPLE NOT TYPICALLY
ACCUSTOMED TO OR ACCLIMATED TO EXTREME HEAT ARE ESPECIALLY URGED
TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
THE VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
BROUGHT RECORD SETTING HISTORIC MARCH HEAT TO THE AREA IS
STARTING TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER HIGHS
TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT FOR MARCH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE MONSTER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL LIKELY BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DAYS 4-7 (MAR 24-27)
WELL ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
VALUES DURING THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE FROM WPC USING THE NBM HAS THE BASELINE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
TEMPERATURE: LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (69-72%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (40-53%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 22/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AT OTHER TIMES WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 20 TO 25 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. BREEZIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MINIMUM
RHS 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>509.
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