563
FXUS65 KTWC 050807
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
107 AM MST SUN APR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE WARM WITH PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN
SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE TODAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE CALIFORNIA/ GREAT BASIN AREA WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DESCEND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF
THE ROCKIES. THIS BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE TO AREAS TUCSON EASTWARD TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OUT EAST AND ALONG MOUNTAINTOPS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK UP GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY PEAKING BETWEEN 1000 AND
1200 MST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-30 MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF KICKING UP SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST, REDUCING
VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN
SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. AN AIR
QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COCHISE COUNTY SUNDAY BY THE
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT QUALITY (ADEQ) DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DUST.
GOES-18 SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS THIS MORNING HAVE VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 0.45 TO 0.55 INCHES TUCSON EASTWARD. AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PWATS WILL
RISE TO 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LEAD TO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SKY
ISLANDS AND A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO AREAS TUCSON EASTWARD DROPPING HIGHS 1 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA AND RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S BY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME THAT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ SOUTHWEST US
SOMETIME AT THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING BREEZY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 OUTLOOK (APRIL 10-14) HAS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (50-60%) FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/12Z.
SKC TO FEW CLOUDS AOA 15-20K FT AGL THROUGH 05/16Z BECOMING FEW
TO SCT. AFT 05/22Z CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO SCT TO BKN AOA 12-16K
FT AGL BECOMING BKN TO OVC BY 06/07Z. SFC WINDS EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 05/18Z AT 20-25 KTS GUSTING 35-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS EAST OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD AND KDUG
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOCALIZED 3-5SM VSBY IN -BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GILA RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS (INCLUDING
KSAD) NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE SUNDAY WITH
REDUCTIONS TO SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY THIS WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM NEW MEXICO TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH GUSTING 40-45 MPH. SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL PEAK AROUND 1000 TO 1200 MST WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
KICKING UP SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE SUNDAY.
A MINOR MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT AND A PASSING
WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A A SLIGHT (10-20%
CHANCE) OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES (PERCENT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TODAY,
INCREASING TO THE TEENS TO MID 20S VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO MID
40S MOUNTAINS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST MINIMUM RHS
WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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