594
FXUS65 KTWC 051833
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1133 AM MST SUN APR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE WARM WITH PARLTY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BOTH TODAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE STRONGER WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING
DUST IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN
SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN TODAY IS DEFINED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF
NEW MEXICO, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN EXTENDING NW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE NEAR 27N/135W. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE LOWER-TO-MID CLOUD COVER THAT
RESULTED IN A FEW WEAK KEMX RADAR RETURNS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY
THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE INTO NEW MEXICO WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST HAS RESULTED IN A
MODEST BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT ISN'T AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
IMPACTED OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LAST WEEK, BUT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. AS OF 11 AM
MST, GUSTS HAVE ONLY BEEN IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE BUT SHOULD PICK
UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WANING A BIT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...THEN WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KICKING UP SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
DUST, REDUCING VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA
RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COCHISE COUNTY
SUNDAY BY THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT QUALITY (ADEQ)
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DUST.
THE NBM SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE LAGGING 5-10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RESIDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 LATE
THIS MORNING. EXAMINATION OF THE ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (ALPW) PRODUCT CONFIRMS THIS WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
BEING OBSERVED MOVING INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IN THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB LAYER. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
MOVING NNW INTO THE CWA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. WE SHOULD SEE THIS MOISTURE EVENTUALLY MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 40S
BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LOCATED NEAR 27N/135W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS AM WILL TRACK DUE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAKING
ITS WAY INTO SE AZ BY 07/00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING/OPEN WAVE FEATURE, I
THINK THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE MORE BAROCLINIC IN
NATURE THAN IS REFLECTED IN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ENHANCED LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS THE E/SE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE FRONT SWITCHES
OVER TO A WSW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE
ADDITIONAL LIFT WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A BROADER AREA THEN JUST THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS HUNCH IS SUPPORTED BY THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF THE 05/12Z HREF. IN ANY EVENT, THESE STORMS WOULD NOT
BE VERY STRONG/IMPACTFUL, PRODUCING LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF
RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN,
IT STILL HAS THAT LOOK OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL EJECT NE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS ARIZONA. I HAVE
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SW/W
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA NEXT WEEKEND, BUT LESS SO WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY GET SHUNTED NORTH OF US.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 07/00Z. SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL THROUGH 05/22Z, THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO SCT-BKN AOA
12-16K FT AGL OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SCT-BKN 8-12K FT AGL AFT
06/17Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR -SHRA/-TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS ELY/SELY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING OVER TO SWLY 10-15
KTS (FROM WEST TO EAST). THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT TERMINALS EAST OF KTUS INCLUDING KSAD AND
KDUG. LOCALIZED 3-5SM VSBY IN -BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GILA RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS (INCLUDING KSAD) NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH
REDUCTIONS TO SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH A BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT RESULTING IN 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 20-25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH GUSTING 40-45
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KICKING UP LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN
SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. A
MINOR MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT AND A PASSING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%)
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
(LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES (PERCENT) IN
THE TEENS TO MID 20S VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY (THE HIGHEST MINIMUM RHS WILL BE EAST OF
TUCSON), LOWERING BACK DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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