919
FXUS65 KTWC 060735
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1235 AM MST MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE WARM WITH PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
UPPER GILA RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE THIS MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
YESTERDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD FOLLOWED BY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. THE
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK DYNAMICS. THIS IS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCES (10-15%) FOR PRECIPITATION IN FAR EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA
CRUZ COUNTIES AND CHANCES (15-30%) IN EASTERN COCHISE TO GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME VIRGA IN THE TUCSON AREA THAT MAY
REACH THE GROUND AS SPRINKLES.
THE WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BY TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/ SOUTHWEST US SOMETIME AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10
OUTLOOK (APRIL 11-15) HAS SOUTHERN ARIZONA LEANING ABOVE NORMAL
(50-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION. MORE TO COME AS WE GET CLOSER!
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 07/12Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AOA 15-20K FT AGL THROUGH 07/00Z. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISHING BECOMING MOSTLY SKC BY 07/12Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
ELY/SELY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, SWITCHING OVER TO SWLY 10-15 KTS (FROM WEST TO EAST).
LOCALIZED 3-5SM VSBY IN -BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GILA
RIVER AND SAN SIMON VALLEYS (INCLUDING KSAD) NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE TODAY WITH REDUCTIONS TO SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. WINDS WEAKEN TOMORROW TO
FOLLOW MORE DIURNAL TRENDS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. A
MINOR MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT AND A PASSING WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%)
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
(PERCENT) IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO MID 40S
MOUNTAINS TODAY (THE HIGHEST MINIMUM RHS WILL BE EAST OF
TUCSON), LOWERING BACK DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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