537
FXUS65 KTWC 061904
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1204 PM MST MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE WARM TODAY, THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH LITTLE-
TO-NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, THIS WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE WILL SEE A
GENERAL WARM-UP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SETTLING INTO READINGS 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MELANCHOLY SKY BLANKETING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT VIRGA NOTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT
UPPER-LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AND
A STRONG UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N/143W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF TUCSON
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST/EAST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
AROUND 06/21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SW NEW MEXICO BY 07/03Z
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE/WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE SHEARING/OPEN WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, THE 850-700 MB LAYER SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONGER WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING AROUND ITS
BASE. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE E/SE FLOW FROM THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT SWITCHES OVER TO A WSW FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR A
BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM, DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT, THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG/IMPACTFUL, PRODUCING LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF RAIN AND
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
OTHERWISE, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER UPPER-LOW NEAR
35N/143W THIS MORNING POSITIONS ITSELF OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT THE 06/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS EJECTS THIS UPPER-LOW
NE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LOW COMING IN
BEHIND IT MONDAY. I STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SW/W WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND, BUT LESS CONFIDENT WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
MAY GET SHUNTED NORTH OF US. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO KEEP A
WATCHFUL EYE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/00Z. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS 8-12K FT
AGL BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 15-20K FT AGL THROUGH 07/03Z WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BECOMING SKC BY 07/12Z.
SFC WINDS ELY/SELY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING OVER TO SWLY 10-15 KTS (FROM WEST TO
EAST). WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING NWLY 10-15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT TODAY WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR WEAK RAIN SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A STALLED-OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF
TUCSON RESULTING IN 20-FOOT WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
TOMORROW AND THIS WEEK WILL FOLLOW MORE DIURNAL TRENDS WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. MINIMUM RH VALUES (PERCENT) IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO MID 40S MOUNTAINS TODAY
(THE HIGHEST MINIMUM RHS WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON), LOWERING BACK
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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