620
FXUS65 KTWC 071106
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 AM MST TUE APR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO LEVELS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING AS RIDGING
STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
WARMING TO AROUND 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHINESS
MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY, EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZES TICKING UP ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE FOCUSING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA. STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING BUT THE FOCUS IS
TRENDING TOWARDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE
(30%-50%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY BUT THAT
SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO LEVELS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/12Z. GENERALLY SKC WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09/00Z
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA BEFORE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING.
SFC WINDS LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING, BECOMING NWLY 10-
15 KTS AFT 07/19Z, THEN LESS THAN 10 KTS AND VARIABLE AFT 07/03Z
THRU END OF VALID PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND
CONTINUE AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS THIS WEEK WILL
FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. A WEATHER
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS, ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY MITIGATE
CRITICAL RH VALUES. THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, MINIMUM RH VALUES 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY,
LOWERING BACK DOWN TO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page