020
FXUS65 KTWC 071945
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1245 PM MST TUE APR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED MODEST LINGERING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AS A RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE TREND WILL SEE HIGHS RISE
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE WEST COAST. NORMALLY A CLOSED LOW WOULD COME
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS THEY TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND PHASE BACK INTO THE FLOW, HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SECOND WAVE UPSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
DROPPING SOUTH AND KICKING THE FIRST LOW EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NORMAL DELAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN, BUT
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE DEPTH OF THIS
UPCOMING WAVE, WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AND TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL PATTERN LIKELY FAVORS THE
MAJORITY OF NOTABLE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA, HOWEVER A DEEPER SOLUTION (AS DEPICTED
BY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS) WOULD BRING
CHANCES FOR MODERATE RAINFALL RATES TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT REALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WHICH SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
AND SEVERITY LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER AIR REINFORCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SECOND UPSTREAM WAVE. THIS SECOND WAVE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF SHOWER CHANCES WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
MONDAY.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 09/00Z
GENERALLY SKC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GRAHAM,
GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES WHERE SCT- BKN CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THRU 09/00Z SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY 10-15 KTS, THEN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER
08/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
12 MPH OUTSIDE OF A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS. AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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