814
FXUS65 KTWC 081849
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1149 AM MST WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
TRANSIENT RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. LOOKING UPSTREAM, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTS A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST,
WITH A SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
BY THIS WEEKEND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AND OPEN THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW, BRINGING THE BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
RECENT TRENDS IN THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SPACE HAVE
SEEN FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS/CHANCES DECREASE WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OR IN NORTHERN
MEXICO. SPLIT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS TROUGH LEAVES
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BETWEEN THE AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FEEDS, WHICH HAS LOWERED RAIN
PROBABILITIES FOR THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THESE CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED (CURRENTLY HIGHEST ON
SATURDAY AT 10-20%).
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WINDIER
CONDITIONS WITH A TRANSITION TO NEAR TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH AXIS FULLY CROSSES THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HOWEVER, WITH A MID-
LEVEL JET EJECTION ON SUNDAY, A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS
(POTENTIALLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS) IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND ON THE JET TIMING AS CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FAVOR A LATE EVENING ARRIVAL. IF THIS JET ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER
OR STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL.
THOUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING MODEST MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION, THERE MAY BE A WINDOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON OF
OVERLAPPING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS THAT
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS
POTENTIAL (AROUND A 20-50% CHANCE CURRENTLY) IS MOSTLY IN AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF A DUDLEYVILLE-TUCSON-NOGALES LINE, WHICH WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL FUTURE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 10/00Z
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9K-12K FEET MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF KTUS-KOLS
THROUGH 09/06Z, THEN FEW-SCT 15K-20K FEET AFTER 09/18Z. SURFACE
WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN, THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 8-12 KTS
AFTER 09/19Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY 10-15 MPH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION, BECOMING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE BUT NOT SUBSTANTIALLY, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT LEAVING THE
DOOR OPEN FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY. THERE
ARE DETAILS TO WORK OUT STILL BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page