579
FXUS65 KTWC 091959
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1259 PM MST THU APR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 6 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL USHER IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PASSING CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
HEADING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THE
SKY ISLANDS AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SENDS CLOUDS AHEAD. THE
AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
A CUT OFF PACIFIC LOW WILL BE KICKED SOUTHWARD BY AN ALASKAN
LOW BEHIND IT OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
HIGH FIRE DANGER AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LED TO THE HOISTING
OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL (10-20% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS FOR GRAHAM, GREENLEE, AND
COCHISE COUNTIES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/VIRGA ARE
LACKING IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL
DRY. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE THE CAPABILITY FOR PRODUCING OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH THAT COULD LOFT UP DUST. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
MONDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL (10-25%) FOR SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER) MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS TUCSON EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AREAS N/NE
OF TUCSON. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
ROUND WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. HIGHEST
AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT GRAHAM CAN SEE A DUSTING
TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL AS THE COOLER AIR COMES IN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AGAIN AND
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES MID INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION VALID THROUGH 11/00Z
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9K-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KOLS-
KSAD, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K
FEET AGL FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 8-12 KTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR KOLS-KDUG. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 10/03Z. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 11/18Z TO 10-15 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY 10-15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION,
BECOMING 18-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO LOOK DRIER, THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY HAS
RESULTED IN THE HOISTING OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SUNDAY. AS
THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIMITED IN SCOPE (10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE SATURDAY MAINLY GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES).
WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MONDAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH IT COULD STILL LINGER
ALONG THE NM BORDER MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH
OR LESS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ150>152.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...JT
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