290
FXUS65 KTWC 101800
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1100 AM MST FRI APR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
COOLER AIR LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP NORTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A STRONG CUT OFF LOW
SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY DRY FOR US, THIS IS LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY. THERE WERE
INDICATIONS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS OUT EAST TODAY, HOWEVER IN THE LAST 12 HOURS THOSE SIGNALS
HAVE DECREASED. WHILE THERE ARE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THERE
IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS
OBSERVE THE GREATEST VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES
WITH SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
STARTING THIS EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW WILL BE, ESSENTIALLY,
ABSORBED BY A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW MOVING IN FROM THE ALEUTIANS
EARLY SATURDAY. THE REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE FIRST LOW WILL
TRANSCEND TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS
FAR AS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES TO THE
ARIZONA/ NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY ELEVATED MONDAY (AND EVEN BE LITTLE BIT
STRONGER THAN SUNDAY) HOWEVER, THE SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION LESSENING THE CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE (15-30%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOCUSED TO AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF TUCSON. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SEMI- ZONAL FLOW WITH
GENERAL TROUGHINESS TO THE WEST WILL RETURN, RAISING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WITH TYPICAL AFTERNON BREEZES. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA HOWEVER THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONGST
THE MODELS HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND AND THE ASSOCIATED
INTENSITY.
AVIATION
VALID THOUGH 12/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET AGL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT
10K-15K AGL. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON BUILDUPS SATURDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OUTFLOWS FROM BUILDUPS WILL AFFECT ANY
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 12/03Z BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AGAIN.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS AFTER 11/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH TODAY AS A PACIFIC
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION, BECOMING 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO LOOK
DRIER, THE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE
MONDAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ150>152.
MALARKEY/EDWARDS
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