002
FXUS65 KTWC 110914
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
214 AM MST SAT APR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIR LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE PACIFIC
LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE TODAY, BEGIN TO OPEN UP SUNDAY, THEN
SPLIT INTO SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15 PERCENT) OF BUILDUPS TODAY ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER AND SHOWERS NORTH OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW WITH
SPEEDS 12-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE BUT GENERAL RH VALUES WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL
BE 18-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH. RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT SUNDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. MONDAY
WINDS STAY STRONG, BUT MOISTURE INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES COOL,
WHICH LEADS TO A REDUCED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND THEN COOL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TUCSON WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS.
AFTER MONDAY BRIEF ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT BEFORE
MODELS BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW INTO THE WESTERN U.S. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW WITH THE EURO
KEEPING THE LOW CLOSED AND HAVING IT DIG SOUTH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE GFS OPENS THE LOW UP AND KEEPS A MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
AVIATION
VALID THOUGH 12/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 18K FEET AGL WITH FEW-SCT 10K-15K AGL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THEREAFTER BECOMING SKC. SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AFTER 11/18Z. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 12/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 12-18 MPH WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH
AND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. DRYER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY,WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER, WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BECAUSE
OF THIS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THEREAFTER, WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ150>152.
HARDIN
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