832
FXUS65 KTWC 252016
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
116 PM MST SAT APR 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY,
AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY EAST OF TUCSON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN WARM TO
NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST GUST
AT KALK. GIVEN THESE WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF TUCSON UNTIL 7
PM THIS EVENING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR SUNDAY, THE TIGHTEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF TUCSON WHERE WINDS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH IN COCHISE COUNTY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY IN COCHISE COUNTY WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH AND WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
ADDITIONALLY, FOR SUNDAY, WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM SAFFORD SOUTH TO AROUND DOUGLAS AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH, IT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 4 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.
IN THE DAY 4 TO 7 PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WE WILL BE
IN A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA, PRIMARILY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL SOME TIMING AND DEPTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES WITH THE ECMWF/EPS A LITTLE BIG SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/GEFS/GEPS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOTE THAT ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS
FAIRLY LOW (MAINLY LESS THAN 0.20") BUT THERE IS A BIG SPREAD WITH
NUMEROUS HIGHER OUTLIERS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING. FOR NOW,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY (THOUGH 10 TO 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING), WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
(20 TO 50 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. AS THE TIMING GETS INTO BETTER FOCUS
WE DO EXPECT THE POPS TO INCREASE WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST
LIKELY PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING
FEW-SCT WITH CLOUD BASES THEN LOWERING TO 8-14K FT AGL AFT 26/03Z.
SFC WINDS SWLY/WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THRU 26/05Z, THEN
BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/14Z. WLY/SWLY WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS THRU END
OF VALID PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
THE NM BORDER INCLUDING KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
40 MPH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST
OF TUCSON. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151 AND 152 THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
STILL BE STRONG SUNDAY EAST OF TUCSON, WITH RH VALUES INCREASING
COMPARED TO TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WESTWARD. HOWEVER, MIN RH
VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS (16 TO 20 PERCENT) ACROSS
SOUTHERN GRAHAM, SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTIES WITH
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY. LIGHTER
WINDS THE MOVE IN EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN
BY AROUND THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ507-508.
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