614
FXUS65 KTWC 261008
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
308 AM MST SUN APR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EAST OF TUCSON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT APRIL.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER DAY ON TAP FOR SE AZ AS
A UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM TUCSON NORTH WITH RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NE THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SW
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT MAY DEVELOP AND LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 7 PM.
ON THE FIRE SIDE, LOCALIZED AREA ACROSS FAR SE COCHISE COUNTY
MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY UP TO
7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (WEDNESDAY APRIL 29 TO SATURDAY MAY 2)
THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN (10-30% VALLEY, 20-50% MOUNTAINS) AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA WILL BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
ENSEMBLE WORLD ON THE TIMING, TRACK, DEPTH, MOISTURE AND QPF
(LARGE SPREADS) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL NO ISSUES
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 3 TO MAY 9)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (36-38%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL NE OF TUCSON (33-39%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-14K FT AGL WITH ISOLATED -SHRA THRU 26/17Z
MAINLY NE OF KTUS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER
26/17Z LEAVING MAINLY CAVU CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. SFC WINDS
SLY 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO 20 KTS THRU 26/16Z THEN SWLY/WLY
15-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS THRU 27/03Z THEN DIMINISHING
AND BCMG TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE END OF VALID
PD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45
MPH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM, SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS THE MOVE IN EARLY TO
MID WEEK WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN BY AROUND THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ507-508.
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